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Oxford Economics: "The Economic Impact of Restricting Competition in 5G Network Equipment"

Oxford Economics: "The Economic Impact of Restricting Competition in 5G Network Equipment"

Key findings of the report:

In a medium impact assessment scenario,

  • Restricting the participation of a major supplier of 5G infrastructure (Huawei) in building a country's network will increase the country's total 5G investment cost by 16% to 19%.
  • Restricting Huawei's 5G will also significantly delay the number of 5G network access users worldwide in the next ten years. In the medium impact scenario, by 2023, the United States expects 5G access population to decrease by 11.6 million (about 3.4% of the population); India's 5G access population is expected to decrease by 31.8 million; 5G in the UK, Germany and France Penetration rates will decrease by 7.4 million, 7.1 million and 4 million, respectively.
  • The delay of 5G launch may also lead to slow technological innovation and slowing economic growth. In the medium impact scenario, by 2035, the US will reduce its GDP by 22 billion U.S. dollars and Australia by 3 billion U.S. dollars. For all eight countries studied in the report, this means that limiting Huawei's 5G will reduce per capita GDP by $100 by 2035.

The impact data for specific countries are as follows:

  • In the next 10 years, France ’s annual deployment costs will increase by 100 to 300 million US dollars. By 2023, 0 to 3.1 million people will not be able to access the 5G network, and will cause GDP loss of 2.6 to 15.6 billion US dollars in 2035.
  • In the next 10 years, the annual deployment cost of the United Kingdom will increase by 200 to 700 million US dollars. By 2023, 3.9 to 10.4 million people will not be able to access the 5G network, and will cause GDP loss of 1.8 to 11.8 billion US dollars in 2035.
  • In the next 10 years, Germany ’s annual deployment costs will increase by 200 to 800 million US dollars. By 2023, 3.8 to 10 million people will not be able to access the 5G network, and will cause GDP loss of 2.4 to 13.8 billion US dollars in 2035.
  • In the next 10 years, the annual deployment cost of the United States will increase by USD 500 million to USD 1.5 billion. By 2023, 0-277.1 million people will not be able to access the 5G network, which will result in a GDP loss of USD 86.3 billion in 2035.
  • In the next 10 years, Canada ’s annual deployment costs will increase by US $ 100 million to US $ 400 million, and by 2023, 1 to 5.7 million people will not be able to access 5G networks, resulting in a GDP loss of US $ 1 to US $ 6.7 billion in 2035
  • Australia's annual deployment costs will increase by US $ 100-300 million in the next 10 years. By 2023, 0-3.1 million people will not be able to access 5G networks, and will cause GDP loss of US $ 8-8.2 billion in 2035.
  • In the next 10 years, Japan ’s annual deployment costs will increase by 200 to 600 million US dollars. By 2023, 2.1 to 5.7 million people will not be able to access 5G networks, and it will cause a GDP loss of 5.33 to 34.3 billion US dollars in 2035.
  • India's annual deployment costs will increase by 200-700 million US dollars in the next 10 years. By 2023, 15.90-45.3 million people will not be able to access 5G networks, and will result in a GDP loss of 4.47-27.8 billion US dollars in 2035.
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Steffen Van Roosbroeck Public Affairs and Communications, Huawei Belgium

 

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